Sunday, January 17, 2010

What to do about the future?

Universities ought to take seriously the preparation of leaders for the future. Trinity Western does, but for what kind of future? I am drawn to the writings of those who help us see alternative futures, especially those who look at demographic trends and project what might be ahead. Over the past few years, here's what's engaged my thinking going forward:
  • Looking to 2015, of the eleven largest urban centres with populations that will range from 16.8 million to 26.4 million, only Tokyo is in the "North". All others are in the "Global South." (Africa, Latin America, Asia)
  • By 2050, forty years from now, an 18 year old first year university student today will be 58 years old and in the prime of their leadership influence. By that time the "North," made up of traditionally "advanced" nations, will comprise only 10-12% of the world's population.
  • Between 2010 and 2050 (the next 40 years) the world's population will grow from 6.75 to 9 billion, a nearly 50% increase. Africa and Latin America will account for 30% of that growth.
  • The epicentre of Christianity keeps dropping south. Christianity now can no longer be thought of as dominantly a Western or Northern reality. The overwhelming majority of Christians reside in the Global South (Africa, Latin America and Asia).
  • Today (2010) Christianity has become and will continue to be the most extensive universal religion in history. Most of Christianity resides in the non-western world, the "Global South." Islam is the next extensive religion.
  • We now live in a post-secular world. The overwhelming majority of the world's population are people of faith. In the next 40 years an increasing share of the world's populations is going to identify with one of two faiths, Christianity or Islam.
  • Global Christianity is deeply associated with poverty and is flourishing among the poor and persecuted while it atrophies among the rich and secure. Europe is faithless; a spiritual desert.
  • Global South Christians are migrating to and rechristianizing the north. Today Korea is the second largest missionary sending nation. Great Britain has 1,500 missionaries from Global South nations and half of all churches in Britain are black.

The emerging demographics of the next 40 years comprise one of the most compelling social-political realities facing humanity yet we hear very little about it in the media or in the international dialogues regarding globalization. It may be one of the most important issues of our time.

So what do we do with this picture of the present and the future? If it is real, what does it mean for how we do university education in the next decade as we develop leaders for the next forty to fifty years? What should a globally sensitive, future looking university do with its curriculum, faculty hiring, pedagogy, and recruitment of students to prepare for and anticipate the future? What are the implications of doing nothing and just carrying-on the business of the university as usual? Any thoughts?

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